Understand Variance in Spin & Go’s with SwongSim

Have you ever wondered what exactly does it mean that there is a lot of variance in Spins if your EV is not protected? How your cEV affects ROI and what affect rakeback has when it comes to your final results?

We come here with few simple explanations and examples with help of a SwongSim software – a tool designed for studying existing and possible structures and their impact on variance.
We will take an example of playing on 10s Spins with a very good results of 50 cEV on a 10k games sample.

To understand the outcome lets first learn how to use SwongSim

1. “Ev chips” is the button that opens no. 2 window where you can edit the data 2.
2. You can edit here the results you would like to see the simulation for. We picked 50 cEV on $10 on PokerStars.COM
3. After setting the chips the software will count how often you will get 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in a game
4. We had to put in a complete prizes structure from PokerStars official site. If you want to run the simulation for some other stakes/room you need to edit this table.
5. The data put in into frequencies table generates the rake – if its not the same as the site suggests you probably made some mistakes writing the numbers in the cells.
6. After the rake and cEV are calculated you can see the expected EV ROR with 0% rakeback
7. You put in the number of games you would like to see the simulation for.

After the data is put in you got to “Text Output” tab and click “Run new” and you get results which for our numbers and really great cEV are as follows:

How to interpret the data?

Based on the example we can see that:

• over 50% of players had a downswing that was higher than 100 buy-ins within those 10k games – over 50% of players  had a break even stretch that is over 3321 games only because of the multiplier distribution. It’s more often than 2 months of playing good poker. 
• over 50% of players are also below their EV. In the “Visualizer” tab you can draw the graph to see how it looks for the input data. You can see how different can your winnings look with exactly the same expected EV.

That is exactly why using EV Deal protection to save yourself from that swings and being able to focus solely on playing good poker is a an absolute game changer. Contact us and ask for the EV deal protection.